A Handicapper's Picks

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Hello everybody and welcome to A Handicapper's Picks, a separate column that will cover GHF. Another will cover races at TW. The purpose of this column is to handicap certain races and pick the likely winner from the bunch. This is by no means to be used as a judging tool for a race, and if you are judging a race that is in all caps and marked as important I encourage you NOT to read that week's column until after you have judged the race.

The column will only cover races that are marked as important - i.e, all caps or a race series like the Risorgimento. This is so that there isn't any confusion. Occasionally, undercard races may be covered as well - in such cases, I will post in the race thread letting the world know so that whoever is judging knows not to read this column until after they have judged. This was just a fun thing that I wanted to do. I will never handicap races that I am judging, but I will handicap races that my horses are entered in. Please do not get upset by my handicapping; this is for fun. Fun fun fun.

Without further adieu, here I go!

SKIPPED WEEKS OF HANDICAPPING
September Week Three

First post comes in September Week Four!

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Green Horse Fields is a hotspot this week for top races. Let's scroll through some and see what we can find.

HAWK CUP
This race will likely cement who the top choice will be for the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint in a couple of months. There's a beautiful field entered. The obvious headliner to me is Demonic Desires. This colt has a ridiculously good record, with eight wins and seven places under his belt, along with heaps of turf sprint wins under his name. He's already the division leader for this distance and surface, and if all goes to plan we could see a very classy win from him today. But we can't forget about Manhattan Royalty. He's been giving Demonic Desires a very hard time lately and even beat him in late August. He's got a load of seconds in high class races under his belt and could break through for another win today. The other two entrants Mighty News and Paranormal Hunter are nothing to sniff at either. Mighty News has got five wins and loads of experience under his belt in the big races. Paranormal Hunter is fantastic at the Wire and could definitely contend. Though to me, she's more of a miler type of horse. We'll see if that'll actually impact her on race day.

My choice for the win is Demonic Desires. This stalker type colt could have this in the bag with a good ride and speed on the front end from Mighty News and Manhattan Royalty. However, my longer shot choice is Paranormal Hunter. She's a closer filly and if the pace is too fast her router tendencies will take her right to the lead. She won't tire out at this distance, that's for sure.


EAGLE CUP
Good luck to the person who judges this one. This has got to be the highest quality juvenile dirt sprint field I've seen yet. Whoever wins this is going to cement their place in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Sprint. This race has got plenty of speed on the front end. Before I even go anywhere, I want to hazard a comment on one of the entrants, Optimus Unstoppable. I love love love this colt, and his closing style could give him an advantage in this field. However, his inexperience is really going to tell on race day, and he could be overmatched. But he's my favorite long shot choice for this field. The likely favorite will be Tears No More. He's grade three, has a loaded and impressive record and is one of the division leaders. But we can't count out the other favorite, Crowned Queen, who's come alive in the last two months and swept to many victories. These two are likely your shorter priced choices. A long shot play is Alucard. His last win was in late July, but in the important Orchid Cup Colts. It's not as though he's been racing a lot, and he could be just fresh and good enough on race day to take the win.

My pick for the win is Tears No More. After losing his last two this colt is well and truly looking for the win. My reasonable long shot play is Reflected In Water. This lightly raced juvenile showed a ridiculous amount of talent and conditioning for a juvenile when she won each of her three starts in July, including the Orchid Cup Fillies. She can't be counted out here due to her inexperience. She could be sitting on a ticking time bomb after taking August and most of September off.


CLIMAX CUP
Another race that could help with deciding who the leader of the three year old dirt division is. The winner of every dirt classic race for this age group is generally a toss up. If you ask me, a really good chance for the win in this race is War Cry. This filly has run into a couple of walls this summer and hasn't won since June in the Coaching Club American Oaks. She'll be deadly determined for the win today. However, she's going to be dueled the entire time around by Sweet Inferno, my long shot play. Sweet Inferno is proven at twelve furlongs when she won the Belmont, and she proved herself to be the best in the division at that time at that distance. Since then she's been a bit less than spectacular, but her prowess at the marathon distance can't be questioned. Another likely favorite - and this is truly starting to sound like the Derby all over again - is Red Herring. He took a race at twelve furlongs against the majority of this field back in early September and is rocking and ready to go.

Despite all this, my pick for the win - and this is due to the amount of surprising results we have these days - is Nightshade. The classy winner of the Breeders Cup Juvenile is perfectly suited, with her closer style, to run down the tiring field on the front end, and it's likely that she'll have a big breakthrough in this race. My longer shot play, if you can call it that, is War Cry. She's been hungering for that win and she's not going to stop at anything to get it today.


UNIVERSAL CUP
We'll see Bella Luna, the definite favorite and Turf Triple Crown winner, attempting to hold on to her crown in this race. After taking two straight and the TTC, it's become more a game of who will steal her crown temporarily. She's classy, but by no means does she outclass this field. Italian Ice is likely to be co-favorite due to her Canadian Triple Crown win. She's best on the turf and is absolutely looking for redemption. Due to the number of great horses in the field, I'm only going to comment that they're all on the front end and depending on the pace absolutely anything could happen.

My pick for the win is most assuredly Blue Me Away. If you have to ask why then you haven't been paying attention. He is absolutely HUNGRY and desperate for this win after stringing a lot of seconds together, and I think he's going to break through today and take this win.